# Profit-First Amazon PPC (Radu Bobirnac)

> Amazon PPC management for brands spending $20K+ a month on ads, by Radu Bobirnac (Ocean City, Maryland, USA). Every recommendation is built on profit per order before ad spend, not ACoS targets: each product has its own break-even, and bids follow it. The free calculators on this site run in the browser, and each is also a free JSON API with no key.

## Free tools

- [Harvest Readiness Checker](https://profitfirstppc.com/tools/harvest-readiness/): is an Amazon search term ready to move into an exact-match campaign? Uses an uncalibrated Beta-binomial adjustment toward the campaign baseline and gives a model probability of positive ad-attributed profit at the current CPC. Does not estimate the incremental profit of harvesting. Verdicts: harvest now, wait (with a conditional extra-click scenario), don't harvest, no evidence.
- [When to Negate](https://profitfirstppc.com/tools/when-to-negate/): is a search term with few or no sales a dud, or just early? Exact binomial test of its orders against its break-even conversion rate, at 80/90/95% certainty, plus how many more clicks it takes to know.
- [Placement Bid Calculator](https://profitfirstppc.com/tools/placement-bid-calculator/): what a click is worth on top of search, rest of search and product pages, and the keyword bid and placement adjustments that keep each under target ACoS. Handles dynamic bidding (down only, up and down).
- [Catalog Profit Check](https://profitfirstppc.com/tools/catalog-profit-check/): break-even ACoS, target ACoS and max CPC for every product; with ACoS today and ad sales, which products lose money on ads each month, and whether a healthy blended ACoS is hiding them.
- [All free tools](https://profitfirstppc.com/tools/)

## API

Free, no key, JSON in and out. Each endpoint runs the same code as its web page. GET an endpoint with no parameters for usage. About 30 requests a minute per address; use the batch POST (up to 500 rows) for bulk checks.

- [OpenAPI spec](https://profitfirstppc.com/api/openapi.json): every endpoint, parameter and field.
- `GET /api/harvest-readiness?clicks=60&orders=12&spend=72&profit_per_order=12&baseline_cvr=0.10` returns `verdict` (`harvest_now` | `wait` | `do_not_harvest` | `no_evidence`), `headline`, `probabilityProfitable`, `estimatedCvr`, `luckShare`, `extraClicksNeeded`, `suggestedStartingBid`. `POST` `{"defaults": {...}, "terms": [...]}` checks up to 500 terms.
- `GET /api/when-to-negate?clicks=24&orders=0&spend=28.80&profit_per_order=19.29` returns `verdict` (`negate` | `watch` | `early` | `profitable` | ...), `probabilityIfBreakEven`, `clicksToBeSure`, `moreClicksToBeSure`. `POST` batches of up to 500 terms.
- `POST /api/placement-bids` with break-even ACoS, keyword bid, strategy and each placement's clicks, spend, orders and sales returns each placement's click worth and two sets of settings: rebalance, or keep the keyword bid.
- `GET /api/catalog-profit-check?price=39.99&fees=11.20&cost=9.50` returns one product's break-even ACoS, target ACoS and (with `conversion_rate`) max CPC. `POST` `{"products": [...]}` checks up to 500 products and summarizes ad profit per month.

## Key formulas

- Profit before ads = price − Amazon fees − landed cost.
- Break-even ACoS = profit before ads ÷ price. Target ACoS = break-even ACoS − margin to keep.
- Break-even conversion rate = CPC ÷ profit per order before ads.
- Maximum profitable CPC = conversion rate × profit per order before ads (= price × break-even ACoS × conversion rate).
- Adjusted conversion rate = (k × campaign conversion rate + orders) ÷ (k + clicks), where k (default 30) is how many clicks of evidence the campaign rate is worth. Assumed baseline weight = k ÷ (k + clicks), not a measured share of luck.
- A click in a placement is worth (sales ÷ clicks) × target ACoS.

## About

- [Services](https://profitfirstppc.com/services.html): free Profit Snapshot call, $249 Profit-First Audit, 30-Day Turnaround Sprint, ongoing management.
- [Case studies](https://profitfirstppc.com/case-studies.html)
- [About Radu Bobirnac](https://profitfirstppc.com/about.html): eight years as a pricing analyst, Amazon ads since 2021.
- [Book a free Profit Snapshot](https://profitfirstppc.com/book.html)