When to Negate
Is this search term worth more clicks?
Use clicks, orders, spend and contribution per order to compare a term with its break-even conversion rate. Review the evidence before deciding to add a negative, collect more data or keep it running.
See how it decides Try a practice roundScroll the chart sideways if it does not fit.
Share this check with your team
A short, plain summary for Slack or email. It’s written in your browser; nothing is sent anywhere. Edit it before you copy if you like.
Cheat sheet
Clicks with no sale before you add a negative.
Find the row for your product’s break-even conversion rate. Rule of thumb: at 95%, it’s about 3 ÷ that rate.
| Break-even conversion rate | 80% sure | 90% sure | 95% sure | Spend to know |
|---|
Break-even conversion rate = cost per click ÷ profit per sale before ads. The spend column uses your cost per click at the certainty you picked.
Practice round
Which of these would you cut?
A made-up search term report for a product that earns $15 per sale before ads. Tick the terms you would cut, then check your picks against the test above at 95% sure.
When should you stop paying for a search term?
A search term costs $1.00 a click and each sale earns $20 before ads, so it needs about one order in every 20 clicks, a 5% conversion rate. With no orders, the chance that a term that pays its way would look this bad is 36% after 20 clicks, 13% after 40 and 4.8% after 59. At 95% certainty, 59 clicks with no orders is the point to add a negative. Use the controls below to try your own profit per sale and cost per click.
How it’s calculated
A fair test for every search term.
Clicks cost money whether or not they convert. So the question isn’t “has it sold yet?” but “does it sell often enough to pay for its clicks?”
Want break-even numbers for every product first? Run the Catalog Profit Check, then pick a product here. Setting top-of-search premiums? Try the Placement Bid Calculator. Search term selling well? Review the uncertainty with Harvest Readiness before you move it to exact match.
Also a free JSON API for your own reports or an AI agent, no key needed: GET https://profitfirstppc.com/api/when-to-negate?clicks=24&orders=0&spend=28.80&profit_per_order=19.29. Details in the API spec.
Break-even conversion rate
Cost per click ÷ profit per sale before ads. A search term converting below this loses money even when it makes sales.
The test
If the term really converted at exactly break-even, how likely is it to get this few orders from this many clicks? A value below 5% flags evidence against break-even for a single test at the 95% setting. It is not a 95% probability that the term is unprofitable.
Clicks to decide
How many more clicks with no new order it takes to get there, and what they cost at your current cost per click.
What it leaves out
Sales from other search terms that this one helps, orders credited after the report was pulled, and multi-unit orders. Treat a close call as “watch it”, not “cut it”.
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Learn the decision behind the numbers.
Work through the example, then apply this tool to your own reports.