Free tool · Harvest Readiness
Is this search term ready for exact match?
A search term with a great first week might be a winner, or it might just have been lucky. This tool works out how much of its conversion rate is likely luck, the chance it’s really profitable, and whether to harvest it now or wait.
- Runs in your browser. Nothing is uploaded
- Free, no email
- Paste a whole Search Term Report
Short answer: harvest a search term when the chance its true conversion rate beats your break-even conversion rate (cost per click ÷ profit per order) passes your bar, 90% by default. Early numbers flatter winners: after 3 clicks, about 91% of a term’s lead over its campaign is usually luck. After 60 clicks, about 33%.
Check a whole report
Paste your search terms, get a harvest list.
Copy four columns from your Search Term Report: search term, clicks, orders and spend. It uses the profit, campaign conversion rate and certainty set above.
One term per line, tab or comma separated. A header row is skipped.
| Search term | Verdict | Chance profitable | Conv. rate | Luck-adjusted | Next step |
|---|
How it’s calculated
Separate the skill from the luck.
A term with 1 order from 3 clicks shows a 33% conversion rate. Almost nothing converts at 33% for long. The terms that look best early are mostly the lucky ones, so this tool corrects for that before you commit budget to an exact-match campaign.
Zero orders so far? That’s a different question: When to Negate tells you whether to cut it. Need each product’s profit before ads? Run the Catalog Profit Check first, then pick the product here.
Break-even conversion rate
Cost per click ÷ profit per order before ads. At a $1.20 click and $12 profit per order, a term must convert above 10% to make money.
Luck-adjusted conversion rate
Start from the campaign’s conversion rate, trusted as much as k clicks of evidence (30 by default), then add the term’s own clicks and orders: (k × campaign rate + orders) ÷ (k + clicks). The share of its lead that’s likely luck is k ÷ (k + clicks): 91% at 3 clicks, 67% at 15, 33% at 60.
Chance it’s profitable
The term’s true rate follows a Beta distribution with α = k × campaign rate + orders and β = k × (1 − campaign rate) + clicks − orders. The tool reports the chance it sits above break-even.
The verdict
Harvest now at or above your certainty, starting at today’s cost per click so the harvest changes where the term runs, not what you pay. Wait in between, with the clicks it still needs. Don’t harvest at or below 100% minus your certainty.
Worked examples
Same conversion rate, different verdicts.
Each row assumes $12 profit per order, a $1.20 click (so break-even is 10%), a 10% campaign rate and the default settings.
| Clicks | Orders | Conv. rate | Luck-adjusted | Chance profitable | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 12.1% | 60% | Wait, ~339 more clicks |
| 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 13.3% | 73% | Wait, ~115 more clicks |
| 60 | 12 | 20.0% | 16.7% | 97% | Harvest now at $1.20 |
| 80 | 3 ($1.50 click) | 3.8% | 5.5% | under 1% | Don’t harvest |
The same 20% conversion rate is a “wait” at 15 clicks and a confident harvest at 60. The common “sales above zero” rule treats all four terms the same way.
Limits
What it can’t tell you.
The skepticism setting is a starting assumption. I’m measuring how quickly Amazon search terms actually fall back toward their campaign average, and the default will be updated as the results come in.
Use settled data
Attributed orders keep updating for about two weeks after a click, so the last few days of a report understate orders.
Ad-attributed profit only
Some harvested orders would have happened organically anyway. Branded terms are the most affected.
Today’s cost per click
The chance is worked out at the term’s current cost per click. An exact-match bid that pays more per click raises the bar.
Timing, not overlap
Whether to also add the term as a negative in its discovery campaign is a separate decision, and there isn’t good evidence either way yet.
For developers and AI agents
Use it from code.
The same calculation is a free JSON API. No key needed. The full spec is at /api/openapi.json.
curl "https://profitfirstppc.com/api/harvest-readiness?clicks=60&orders=12&spend=72&profit_per_order=12&baseline_cvr=0.10"To check a whole Search Term Report, POST up to 500 terms at once:
curl -X POST https://profitfirstppc.com/api/harvest-readiness \
-H "content-type: application/json" \
-d '{"defaults": {"profitPerOrder": 12, "baselineCvr": 0.10},
"terms": [{"searchTerm": "insulated water bottle", "clicks": 60, "orders": 12, "spend": 72},
{"searchTerm": "water bottle with straw", "clicks": 9, "orders": 1, "spend": 10.80}]}'Each result has a verdict (harvest_now, wait, do_not_harvest or no_evidence), a one-sentence headline, probabilityProfitable, estimatedCvr, luckShare, extraClicksNeeded and suggestedStartingBid. The other free tools have APIs too: see llms.txt.
FAQ
Harvesting questions
How many clicks before moving a search term to exact match?
There’s no fixed number. It depends on how far the term converts above break-even. In the examples above, a term converting at twice break-even needed about 60 clicks to be a 97% confident harvest. A term converting just above break-even can need hundreds.
Should I harvest a search term after one order?
Usually not. One order from a few clicks is mostly luck: after 3 clicks, about 91% of the gap between the term’s rate and its campaign’s is expected to fade. The exception is a term with cheap clicks that converts far above break-even. Run it through the checker to see.
What is the break-even conversion rate for Amazon PPC?
Cost per click ÷ profit per order before ad spend. At a $1.20 click and $12 profit per order, a search term must convert above 10% to make money.
Should I also negate the term in the auto campaign?
That’s a separate decision from timing, and there isn’t good published evidence either way yet. This tool only answers whether the term has proven itself enough to harvest.
You talk to me, not an account manager
Find out what your ads are allowed to cost.
Tell me about your account in two minutes. I review one Search Term Report before we talk, and you leave the call with three findings and a free quote.